The week in five lines
Regime read: Mixed. 3 of 5 risk-on measures. Yields eased for a second week (US 10Y 4.999%, 10Y real yield 2.64%) and volatility edged down, but the index slipped and defensives kept the bid.
Last week's read: Week 42 Mixed was consistent with the week that followed. Three Week 42 model states extended (XLI, EZU, MCHI); none broke structure.
Where money moved: into energy, healthcare, staples, value, low volatility and software; out of semis, North Asian tech, China, India, communications and gold.
New model states: XLP and IBB aligned positive; XLC, XLI, SMH, MCHI and GLD aligned negative.
Events ahead: FOMC decision Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 UK; US Q3 GDP and core PCE Thu 29 Oct, 12:30 UK.
The second week of easing yields did not change where money is going. It kept moving into energy, healthcare, staples and value, and kept leaving semis, North Asian tech, China and gold. Breadth improved under the index, with equal-weight, financials and materials turning up on the four-hour chart, but the S&P 500 itself slipped, so the model holds its Mixed read for a third week.
Two things are worth watching. Gold fell 4% while real yields fell, which is the opposite of the usual relationship. And on the weekly chart the uptrend is still intact for 30 of 36 instruments, but 16 of them have rolled over on the daily signal, from growth and semis to Europe, emerging markets and gold, just as the Fed meets on Wednesday.
Last week's log: three of the ten Week 42 model states extended (industrials, Europe and China), none broke structure, and the Mixed regime read was consistent with the week. The full record is on the Logs page.
The full Week 43 report covers the daily and weekly rotation maps, ratios, flow, the seven new model states with their levels, a weekly trend-change watch and the week-ahead scenarios.
General market research describing the output of a rules-based model. Not investment advice or a personal recommendation, and not an invitation to buy, sell or hold any investment. Disclosure: Capital Flows model tracking in Q4 2026 runs on a paper (non-live) account; the author separately trades gold and Nasdaq-100 CFDs, which relate to GLD and QQQ. Markets carry risk and you may lose money; past model readings are not a guide to future results. Published by Blueprint Three Consulting Limited, which is not authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority.