MACRO & LIQUIDITY PANEL
The public half of the Capital Flows macro panel: where dollar liquidity, rates, the dollar, oil and market stress stand, updated after each US close from Federal Reserve data.
Updated 23 Oct 2026 · latest available observations · each figure carries its own observation date
Net liquidity
Net liquidity = Fed total assets − Treasury General Account − overnight reverse repo, all on the same Wednesday (H.4.1).
Fed total assets
$6,753.6B
1W −$2.0B · 4W +$5.9B
Flat · Wed 21 Oct
Treasury General Account
$945.2B
1W +$59.3B · 4W −$2.2B
Rising (drains liquidity) · Wed 21 Oct
Overnight reverse repo
$0.24B
1W +$0.04B · 4W −$0.22B
Near zero · Wed 21 Oct
Net liquidity
$5,808B
1W −$61.4B · 4W +$8.3B
Falling · Wed 21 Oct
Read: net liquidity fell $61B on the week, almost all of it from the Treasury rebuilding its cash balance. The Fed balance sheet barely moved and reverse repo is close to zero, so TGA swings are now the main week-to-week driver. Over four weeks the level is roughly unchanged.
Rates & inflation
US 10-year yield
5.13%
1W −6 bp · 4W +2 bp
Falling · 21 Oct
10-year real yield (TIPS)
2.76%
1W −8 bp · 4W 0 bp
Falling · 21 Oct
10-year breakeven inflation
2.32%
1W 0 bp · 4W −1 bp
Flat · 22 Oct
Curve: 10-year − 2-year
0.31%
1W −2 bp · 4W 0 bp
Flat · 22 Oct
Curve: 10-year − 3-month
0.74%
1W −8 bp · 4W −20 bp
Falling · 22 Oct
Read: yields eased on the week, led by real yields, while inflation expectations held steady. The 10-year minus 3-month curve has flattened 20 bp over four weeks.
Risk, dollar & growth
VIX
19.03
1W +2.57 · 4W +3.36
Rising · 22 Oct
Chicago Fed NFCI
−0.50
1W +0.01 · 4W +0.03
Flat (below 0 = looser than average) · w/e 16 Oct
Broad US dollar index
121.40
1W −0.2% · 4W +1.6%
Flat · 16 Oct
Brent crude ($/bbl)
115.22
1W −8.4% · 4W +0.3%
Falling · 20 Oct
Initial jobless claims
194,000
1W −3.0% · 4-week avg 197,750
Flat on the 4-week average · w/e 17 Oct
Read: implied volatility picked up on the week even as oil fell sharply. Financial conditions remain looser than average but have tightened slightly over the month. The dollar is firmer over four weeks.
Method and notes
Weekly change compares the latest observation with the one a week earlier; four-week change on the same basis. Yields and curves in basis points; dollar, oil and claims in percent; NFCI in index points; balance-sheet items in US$ billions. Direction is Rising, Falling or Flat against a fixed band per series.
Every value carries its real observation date. Dollar, oil and the NFCI publish with a lag and are never relabelled to a later date. Credit spreads are monitored in the model but not published here under the data provider's licence.
Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (H.4.1, H.15, H.10, Chicago Fed, CBOE, EIA, US Department of Labor). General market data for information only. Not investment advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Capital Flows Global is published by Blueprint Three Consulting Ltd, which is not authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority.