The weekly record of every regime read and model state the model has published, kept for forward-testing its performance. Each entry is timestamped at publication and judged on completed New York closes, so the record can be checked as it builds. Model output, not investment advice.
Logs · as of Fri 23 Oct 2026 close
Logged Mon 19 Oct 2026 (Fri 16 Oct closes) in the Week 42 report.
Regime read: Mixed, a defensive rotation inside a market that is holding. Rates eased but growth and chip leadership broke, volatility rose a third, and money moved into staples, healthcare, energy and utilities rather than leaving equities. Measured Fri 16 → Fri 23 Oct: 3 of 5 risk-on measures, consistent with Mixed.
| Ticker | State logged | Why logged | Extension | Structure | Fri 23 Oct close | Status | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLE | Aligned positive | One of only three daily leaders left; inflow, +4.0 ATR above D55 | 69.55 | 62.95 | 69.33 | Active | — |
| XLV | Aligned positive | Defensive rotation; daily Leading with inflow, +3.0 ATR above D55 | 179.52 | 168.19 | 179.28 | Active | — |
| EWZ | Aligned positive | Held Leading with inflow while the rest of EM fell | 42.84 | 38.45 | 42.59 | Active | — |
| IWM | Aligned negative | Small caps Lagging with outflow, 3.9 ATR below D55 under rate pressure | 266.58 | 285.42 | 275.75 | Active | — |
| XLI | Aligned negative | Cyclicals Lagging with outflow as money moved to defensives | 165.28 | 172.75 | 164.62 | Extended | Fri 23 Oct |
| ICLN | Aligned negative | Clean energy Lagging with outflow, 3.6 ATR below D55 | 15.97 | 17.64 | 16.02 | Active | — |
| EZU | Aligned negative | Europe Lagging with outflow, 2.8 ATR below D55 | 64.98 | 68.13 | 64.63 | Extended | Fri 23 Oct |
| EEM | Aligned negative | EM vs developed fell from +6.3% to below W55 in one week | 61.74 | 66.45 | 62.01 | Active | — |
| EWY | Aligned negative | Korea −15.1% on the week; chip-supply-chain distribution with outflow | 144.10 | 177.42 | 151.26 | Active | — |
| MCHI | Aligned negative | China Lagging with outflow, 3.1 ATR below D55 | 50.55 | 53.21 | 49.00 | Extended | Fri 23 Oct |
Logged Sun 11 Oct 2026 (Fri 9 Oct closes) in the Week 41 report.
Regime read: Mixed, a narrow, rate-pressured risk-on. Growth and EM led with volatility falling, while nominal and real yields trended higher, the dollar firmed and EM credit leaked. Measured Fri 9 → Fri 16 Oct: 2 of 5 risk-on measures, consistent with Mixed.
| Ticker | State logged | Why logged | Extension | Structure | Fri 23 Oct close | Status | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | Aligned positive | H4, D1 and W1 Bull; Leading with weekly inflow; broad index leadership | — | 763.26 | 759.97 | Structure break | Fri 16 Oct |
| QQQ | Aligned positive | Growth leadership; all frames Bull with weekly inflow, +13.6% vs W55 | — | 725.74 | 704.40 | Structure break | Fri 16 Oct |
| XLK | Aligned positive | Tech Leading with inflow, +20.9% vs W55 | — | 189.30 | 183.23 | Structure break | Fri 16 Oct |
| XLE | Aligned positive | Oil shock with Brent above $100; Leading with weekly inflow, +17.2% vs W55 | — | 62.12 | 69.33 | Active | — |
| XLV | Aligned positive | Defensive growth; Leading with inflow at lower volatility | — | 167.02 | 179.28 | Active | — |
| IGV | Aligned positive | Software rotation inside tech (IGV/SMH +8.6% on the week) | — | 103.78 | 110.59 | Active | — |
| EWZ | Aligned positive | Strongest move in the universe (+14.0% on the week); Leading with inflow | — | 37.66 | 42.59 | Active | — |
| INDA | Aligned negative | Lagging on every frame with outflow, 8.0% below W55 | — | 48.16 | 46.46 | Active | — |
| TLT | Aligned negative | Duration Lagging on every frame as real yields trended up | — | 80.98 | 81.34 | Structure break | Fri 23 Oct |
Each entry is fixed at publication with its levels and judged on completed New York daily closes only. A model state is Extended if a close goes beyond its extension level (one daily ATR beyond the publication close) first, Structure break if a close goes through its structure level (the daily EMA55) first, and Expired if neither happens within four weekly closes. Week 41 states carried a structure level only. A regime read is consistent when the following week's five risk measures match it (SPY, VIX, RSP/SPY, XLP/XLY, EMB). Daily closes for Mon 19 to Thu 22 Oct were not captured, so Week 42 and 43 outcomes are judged on Friday closes; where an earlier close may have resolved an entry first, the Logs record the Friday result and say so.
Timestamps. Every entry links back to the report it was first published in, and each report carries its beehiiv publication date. Weeks 41 and 42 were issued on 11 and 19 October and published to this website on 24 October 2026; from Week 43 each report is published on the Sunday it is issued. See the Reports.
The Logs record the output of a rules-based model for forward-testing its behaviour. They are not a record of trades, not investment advice or a personal recommendation, and not an invitation to buy, sell or hold any investment. Levels are model reference points, not entry, exit or sizing instructions. Published by Blueprint Three Consulting Ltd, which is not authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority.