Issue 01 · Week 41 · 5–11 October 2026 · NY closes Fri 9 Oct · Published Sun 11 Oct
Summary
Regime read: Mixed, a narrow, rate-pressured risk-on. Risk appetite is intact at the top of the market, with volatility low and growth and EM equities leading. Underneath, the funding backdrop is tightening: nominal and real yields are trending up, the dollar is firm and EM credit is leaking. In this backdrop, large, cash-rich leaders have held up while breadth, duration and rate-sensitive areas have lagged.
Regime | VIX | US10Y | Real yield | DXY | W1 Leading | W1 Inflow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mixed | 14.85 | 5.242% | 2.87% | 102.23 | 15 / 31 | 19 / 31 |
Into: large-cap growth, energy, healthcare, software and Brazil.
Out of: cyclicals, small caps, Europe, real estate and gold.
The divergence in the data: defensives against cyclicals (XLP/XLY) Leading with inflow on the weekly frame while the index is carried by its largest names.
Key scheduled event: US CPI, Wed 14 Oct.