Welcome to Capital Flows Global.
This letter is the short version of a longer piece of work. Every week a fixed model reads 40 ETFs and nine cross-asset ratios for one thing: where money is moving, and whether that move is starting, holding or fading. The letter gives you the result in a few minutes. The full report sets out the evidence.
What each letter contains
The week in five lines: the regime read, how last week's read compared with what followed, where money moved, the instruments where the model's signals are aligned, and the main event ahead.
Where money moved: the rotation in plain language, with the numbers behind it.
Model states: the instruments where trend, signal and flow currently agree, with the structure level at which the model's reading would change.
Positioning: what the latest Commitments of Traders report says about crowding.
The week ahead: the scheduled releases relevant to this read, and why.
How the record is kept
Each week's regime read and model states are logged with a timestamp before the week opens and are never edited afterwards. What followed is then recorded against fixed, published rules: the regime read is compared with five market measures over the following week, and each model state is logged as extended, broken at structure, or unchanged after four weeks, using completed daily closes only. The full signal log is published with sample sizes, including the readings that did not follow through. It measures the model, not anyone's trading results.
What this is not
This is general market research about how a rules-based model reads the market. It is the same for every reader, takes no account of your circumstances, and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment. Levels are model reference points, not entry, exit or position-sizing instructions.
The first two issues follow: Week 41 opened the signal log, and Week 42 recorded its first follow-through. Thank you for reading.
Ismael Al-Farooq
Capital Flows Global
General market research, not investment advice or a personal recommendation. The author trades some instruments covered in this publication in a personal or proprietary account; holdings at publication are disclosed in each issue. Markets carry risk and you may lose money. Past model readings are not a guide to future results. Published by Blueprint Three Consulting Ltd, which is not authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority.