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Markets talk in prices, but the story is told by flows: where capital is arriving, where it is leaving, and how fast. Capital Flows Global exists to read that story once a week, in plain language, and to put a number on how often the read is right.
The two-minute version
Every Sunday: one report on where money moved across 40 ETFs, and what it means for the week ahead.
Every call comes with a level that confirms it and a level that cancels it, stated before the week starts.
Every call is scored afterwards, hits and misses, and the running scorecard is public.
What we track
The universe is deliberately small enough to read properly every week: 40 instruments that together describe the global risk picture.
Group | Instruments |
|---|---|
US core | SPY, QQQ, IWM |
US sectors | XLK, XLC, XLY, XLF, XLI, XLE, XLB, XLV, XLP, XLU, VNQ |
Industries and themes | SMH, IGV, IBB, KRE, ICLN, ARKK |
International developed | EFA, EZU, EWJ |
Emerging markets and countries | EEM, EWY, EWT, EWZ, INDA, MCHI |
Rates and gold | TLT, GLD |
Gauges (the lens, not the trade) | VIX, DXY, US 10-year yield, 10-year real yield, RSP, IWF, IWD, USMV, EMB |
Alongside them sit nine ratio checks that answer the questions behind most market moves: is breadth widening or narrowing (RSP/SPY), is money favouring growth or value (IWF/IWD), small or large (IWM/SPY), defensives or cyclicals (XLP/XLY), emerging or developed markets (EEM/EFA), bonds or stocks (TLT/SPY), semis, software, and gold against real yields.
A macro layer built from Federal Reserve data (real yields, credit conditions, financial conditions, the dollar and net liquidity) sets the backdrop. It informs the regime call; it never decides a call on its own.
How each instrument is read
Every instrument gets the same four readings from completed daily and weekly closes, never intraday prices:
Trend: the direction on the higher timeframe.
Signal: the direction on the shorter timeframe, which usually turns first.
Rotation state: Leading, Weakening, Lagging or Improving relative to the market.
Flow: whether capital is moving in, out, or sitting still.
When all four agree, the picture is clear. When they disagree, that disagreement is usually the most interesting thing in the report, because it is where the next rotation starts.
What arrives each week
The weekly letter leads with a five-line summary: the regime call, last week's result, where money moved, the names on the watchlist, and the main event ahead. You can stop there and still know what matters.
The weekly report goes deeper: the regime gauges and ratio checks, the rotation map, flow changes, trend flips to watch, leaders and laggards, and the structural watchlist with the levels that would confirm or cancel each idea.
Every call is scored
A view without a way to be wrong is commentary. Each call in the report is logged before publication with two levels: one that confirms it and one that cancels it. After that, the call is locked and never edited.
Regime call: Risk-on, Mixed or Risk-off, judged the following Friday against five fixed tests (SPY, VIX, breadth, defensives versus cyclicals, and emerging-market credit).
Watchlist calls: Confirmed if price closes through the confirm level first, Cancelled if it closes through the cancel level first, Expired if neither happens within four weeks. Ties go against the call.
The scorecard shows every window with its sample size, including the ones that look bad. No call is removed and no resolved call is rescored.
Our standards
No hype. Calls are stated with levels, not adjectives.
Every number has a source and a date. Where data lags, it says so.
Minimum data. Sign-up asks for an email address and nothing else. Your details are never sold or shared, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe.
Fixed cadence. One report a week, on Sunday. No unscheduled emails.
Where to start
Reports and Letters are listed in the navigation above. Each entry has a short summary on the page; subscribers can download the full report PDF.
— Ismael Al-Farooq, Capital Flows Global
Capital Flows Global publishes general market research for information only. Nothing here is a personal recommendation or financial advice, and nothing takes account of your circumstances. Markets carry risk, and past calls do not predict future outcomes.